“I Won’t Back Down” is one of Tom Petty’s most enduring anthems…a simple message about standing firm when things get difficult. It remains immensely popular due to its simple, universal message, serving as a personal, empowering mantra for overcoming challenges, from illness to personal struggles.
Source: Wikipedia
Well, I won’t back down.
No, I won’t back down.
You can stand me up at the gates of hell…
But I won’t back down.
If you don't remember the video or simply want to watch a great song performed by not only Tom Petty but also Ringo Starr on drums and Jeff Lynne, of ELO fame, who co-wrote the song, on guitar and vocals, I have included a link below for your viewing and listening pleasure.
Tom Petty And The Heartbreakers - I Won't Back Down (Official Music Video)
Tom Petty wasn’t talking about the stock market. But he could have been. Because moments like this…when geopolitical tensions rise, headlines turn darker, and markets react sharply, are when investors feel tested the most. The recent escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is serious. It introduces uncertainty. It creates volatility.
And it feels different. It always does. Just like the tariff-driven selloff did a year ago. Just like the 34% COVID decline in March 2020. Just like the 50%+ meltdown during the Financial Crisis.”
But one of the most important lessons from market history is that while the causes of volatility change, the pattern of recovery has been remarkably consistent.
Over the last 75 years, markets have endured wars, oil shocks, terrorist attacks, political crises, and financial system failures. Each time, the initial reaction is the same: uncertainty rises, markets fall, and fear takes hold. And historically, markets have recovered over time
—not because the world suddenly becomes stable, but because markets are forward-looking. They begin healing long before the news does, as shown in the chart below.
The Global Financial Crisis is a powerful example. From its peak on October 9, 2007, to its bottom on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 fell approximately 57%, the steepest decline since the Great Depression. The Dow dropped about 54%, and the Nasdaq more than 55%. At the time, it didn’t feel like a market correction; it felt like the financial system itself was breaking.
And yet, that moment when the headlines were still bleak, and pessimism ruled, marked the bottom.
The recovery didn’t happen overnight, but it began sooner than most expected. In the 12 months following the March 2009 low, the S&P 500 surged roughly 70%. From the bottom, it took about 4 years to recover to prior peak levels, and about 5.5 years from the original 2007 high to reach a new all-time high in 2013.
It wasn’t obvious at the time. It never is.
Fast forward to 2020, and the script was different and unexpected…but the pattern was the same. The COVID-driven selloff was the fastest descent into a bear market in history. The S&P 500 fell about 34% in just 33 days, bottoming on March 23, 2020. Fear was widespread, uncertainty was extreme, and there was no clear roadmap forward.
And yet, the recovery was just as extraordinary. The market fully regained its losses and reached a new high by August 18, 2020—just 148 days later. One year after the bottom, the S&P 500 had gained roughly 76%, while the Nasdaq surged about 95%. The S&P 500 doubled from its pandemic low in less than a year, marking one of the fastest recoveries on record.
At the time, buying stocks didn’t feel like an opportunity. It felt like a risk.
That’s the paradox investors face. The moments that feel the most uncomfortable are often the ones that matter most. Markets tend to sell off in response to uncertainty, but those declines have historically proven to be temporary. Over time, markets digest new information, adjust expectations, and move forward, as shown in our second chart below.
Even in politically charged environments like midterm election years, volatility has been a feature, not a flaw. Since 1950, the average intra-year drawdown during midterm years has been about -16%, yet the average 12-month forward return has been over +36%, as you can see in our final chart below. In other words, periods of discomfort have often been followed by periods of strength.
Source: Facebook
That brings us back to today.
The current environment feels uncertain because it is uncertain. But uncertainty is not new to markets…it is the fuel that drives both volatility and opportunity.
When markets decline, stocks may become more affordable. Valuations compress. Future return potential may improve. Historically, those moments have rewarded long-term investors, but only if they stay invested long enough to participate in the recovery…especially for those with the discipline to invest when stocks may be more affordable.
That’s the hard part. There are many things in this world—markets, economies, geopolitics—that you simply cannot control. That’s why it’s critical to focus on what you can. Your asset allocation, your risk profile, your liquidity needs, and doing things differently than most investors. Remember, if the herd were largely right, the herd would be rich. Since this is, by and large, not the case, I would encourage you to do something different from what the masses are doing.
Volatility doesn’t just test portfolios…it tests behavior. It creates the temptation to step aside, to wait for clarity, to move to safety until things “settle down.” But markets don’t wait for clarity. By the time the outlook feels stable, prices have often already adjusted higher, and you may have missed the opportunity.
March 2009 didn’t feel like a turning point.
March 2020 didn’t feel like a turning point.
They felt like moments to get out.
However, if you had followed your feelings, you would have done exactly the wrong thing—at exactly the wrong time, and the results would have shown up in your portfolio.
History suggests those were the moments to lean in, or at the very least, to not back down. Tom Petty’s message wasn’t about ignoring reality. It was about resilience in the face of it. That’s what successful investing requires. Not blind optimism, but disciplined perspective. Not predicting the next headline but trusting a process that has endured through many of them.
Markets will continue to face shocks. Geopolitical tensions will rise and fall. Headlines will come and go. The media will scream that the end of the world is coming once again. But the long-term pattern of adaptation, recovery, and a new period of growth has remained intact.
That doesn’t mean every downturn is short. It doesn’t mean every recovery is immediate. But it does mean that abandoning a long-term plan during periods of stress has historically been more damaging than the downturn itself.
Source: YouTube
“I won’t back down” isn’t just a lyric—it’s a mindset. Turns out, Tom knew exactly what he was talking about.
Because in markets, resilience isn’t about avoiding volatility. It’s about enduring it. And more often than not, the investors who stay the course, who keep perspective when it’s hardest to do so, have often been better positioned in the long run.
As we navigate economic and geopolitical uncertainty, I thought this was an important reminder. Staying the course isn’t always easy, but it’s how we continue “Moving Life Forward.”
© 2026 Jesse Hurst
Senior Wealth Manager
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