A stag party, also known as a bachelor party, is a celebration for a man about to get married. His friends typically organize it and mark his last days of bachelorhood before entering marriage. It's a way to celebrate the groom-to-be with his male friends, often involving activities and entertainment that might be considered "unsuitable" for women. The tradition of stag parties has roots in ancient cultures, where soldiers would toast each other on the eve of a friend's wedding, marking the end of their carefree bachelorhood. Modern stag parties have evolved into more elaborate celebrations, with some becoming "destination" events, often taking place in popular tourist locations.
Hollywood has many examples of movies about stag or bachelor parties. Unfortunately, most of the content cannot be shared in an educational and family format such as this. A couple of the better-known stag movies include The Hangover, which is known for giving guys who are tired of quoting Anchorman new material to work with. My favorite stag movie happens to be Bachelor Party, starring a relatively young Tom Hanks, well before his multiple Academy Award-nominated roles.
Source: Amazon.com
Hanks stars as the unassuming school bus driver Rick, a betrothed who is taken out for one last wild night with his friends the night before his wedding. One particular scene from the movie should be near and dear to fans of Cleveland baseball. In it, Rick is playing tennis with his fiancée, Tawny Kitaen's, parents and decides to use the tennis racket as a baseball bat and hit every ball as far as he can over the neighbor's fence. At one point, he shouts, "Cleveland wins the Pennant!!" This clip was shown on the Jumbotron at Jacob's Field many times while I was there, and the crowd always appreciated it. A YouTube link to the humorous scene is included below for your enjoyment.
Cleveland Wins The Pennant!! - Bachelor Party - Tom Hanks - Tennis Scene
What does all of this talk about "stag parties" have to do with the economy or the media? Great question. I am glad you asked. It seems that after the March Federal Reserve Bank meeting, there was a massive surge in the number of media headlines using the term "stagflation." The media is having a stagflation party and is using this term repeatedly, whether it makes sense or not. Why would they do this? Because it brings back scary memories of Jimmy Carter wearing a sweater and telling people to turn down their thermostats so they can help "Whip Inflation Now." The term stagflation also provides a negative connotation, and the media knows that negative news draws more clicks and views than positive stories. In our first chart below, you can see the recent surge in headlines, including the term stagflation.
Source: Bloomberg Finance, March 20, 2025
The term "Stagflation" has been appearing regularly in recent news articles and headlines, including print media and cable news networks. Below are a few selected headlines for your confirmation.
However, it is apparent that in the media's quest to create a clickable headline, they have forgotten the actual definition of the word. Once again, it appears that the financial media is not to be completely trusted in their reporting. Stagflation is not just weak economic growth with high inflation. According to the American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, 5th edition:
When we lookback to the late 1970s, when the term stagflation was coined, we did indeed have a combination of high inflation, high unemployment, and slow economic growth. Due to its dual mandate, periods like this are particularly challenging for the Federal Reserve Bank to manage. The Fed is supposed to help maintain price stability, low inflation, and full or maximum employment. If the Fed raises interest rates too much to squelch inflation, it risks plunging the economy into a recession and driving unemployment up even further. This is why Fed Chair Paul Volcker raised short-term interest rates to over 20% upon taking office. This did wring out inflation but left a nasty recession and high unemployment in its wake.
So, how does this definition and comparison to the late 1970s look in light of our current economic measurements? While GDP is undoubtedly expected to slow in the wake of the recent tariff announcements, the economy is still producing positive growth at the moment. Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, prompting the Fed to continue raising rates aggressively, but it is now at 2.8% over the last 12 months. This is above the Federal Reserve Bank's 2% target, but has been slowly moderating and coming down. Tariffs may present a short-term challenge to this, but nothing like we saw during the double-digit inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Finally, unemployment is currently at 4.2% and has been bouncing around the 4% level for most of the last year. In fact, Fed Chairman Jay Powell has said that the labor market is currently on sound footing.
Investors should once again view the recent wave of stagflation headlines through a lens of present reality. Current economic conditions show that inflation is moderating, unemployment is at historically low levels, and there is steady but potentially slower economic growth. This does not align with the true definition of stagflation. While the media loves to sensationalize economic and market movements to create clickable headlines, I thought it was important to share what the real definition of stagflation is in light of the current state of the economy.
As is always the case, helping clients stay informed is one of our best weapons against the media. During a recent experience answering many questions for a reporter, she said, " Thank you so much for distilling something so complex down to bite-sized bits of information that people can understand. This was very helpful as I rarely cover finance issues in my reporting."
While the media's "stagflation party" is not nearly as much fun as the bachelor parties in the movies above, I thought this was an important topic for me to share with you as we continue "Moving Life Forward."
© 2025 Jesse Hurst
Senior Wealth Manager
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