For the past several weeks, Wall Street has been consumed with one question: Will they or won’t they hike?
Rachel and I can answer that question pretty definitively. Yes.
Over the past 14 months, we’ve hiked our way through some spectacular places across North America—Whistler in British Columbia, Banff and Lake Louise in Alberta, Sedona in Arizona, and Bryce Canyon and Zion in Utah.
Whistler, BC Banff, Alberta
Lake Louise, Alberta
Source: All photos by Jesse
Unfortunately, Wall Street isn’t asking about us. They’re asking about the Federal Reserve. And on that question, the answer is considerably less certain, as you can see from a recent Google search below.
Source: Google
At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve left short-term interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. But the decision was hardly unanimous. Three members wanted to raise rates by another quarter point, an unusually divided vote for the Fed. The disagreement centers largely around inflation and what the Fed should—or shouldn’t—do about it.
Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% long-term target, as it has for more than five years, even as many underlying measures have continued to moderate, while the recent spike in energy prices has complicated the picture. The Fed itself acknowledges that supply shocks, particularly in energy, have contributed to higher inflation this year.
But that raises an interesting question.
If the price of oil is rising because of a supply disruption, exactly how does raising the federal funds rate another quarter point produce another barrel of oil?
That appears to be part of the philosophical debate taking place inside the Fed.
Chairman Kevin Warsh has also begun asking some broader questions about how the Federal Reserve makes these decisions in the first place. New task forces are examining everything from economic data and inflation models to communications and the Fed’s overall policy framework. Warsh has publicly asked whether the Fed’s models are giving policymakers the best possible view of prices and economic output in a rapidly changing economy.
Source: Seeking Alpha
We think those are good questions.
Some of the traditional inflation measures the Fed watches can move with significant lags. Housing is a great example. Official inflation statistics can take time to reflect changes already occurring in real-world rents. Higher-frequency indicators can provide a much more current picture of where prices are actually heading.
Meanwhile, every new economic report produces another round of headlines:
THE FED MAY HIKE!
A few days later:
THE FED MAY NOT HIKE!
Then inflation comes in a little hotter or cooler, oil moves five dollars, somebody from the Fed gives a speech, and we start all over again. It can be exhausting.
Which brings me back to Rachel and me.
Bell Rock, Sedona Broken Arrow Trail, Sedona
Over the past year, we have stood beneath the mountains in Banff, looked out over the red rocks of Sedona, wandered among the hoodoos of Bryce Canyon, and stared up at the canyon walls of Zion.
Bryce Canyon, Utah Bryce Canyon, Utah
And not once did any of those mountains ask us what we thought the Federal Reserve would do at its next meeting. There is probably a lesson in that.
We spend an extraordinary amount of our lives today looking at two-dimensional screens—televisions, phones, tablets, and computer monitors—that tell us what to worry about next.
Markets. Politics. Inflation. Interest rates. Elections. Wars. Some of those things matter. As investors, we certainly can't ignore them.
But they don't deserve all of us.
Sometimes we need to exchange the two-dimensional world for a three-dimensional one.
Put down the phone. Turn off the television. Lace up your boots. Talk to the person walking next to you. Look at a mountain instead of another market chart.
We don't know whether Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve will hike rates at their next meeting. And despite all those headlines, no one can know for certain today either. There will always be another CPI report, another Fed speech, and another breathless headline telling us what it all means.
Rachel and I have a somewhat different forecast. We're going hiking.
Zion National Park, Utah Zion National Park, Utah
Because sometimes the best response to all the noise isn't figuring out what the Fed will do next.
It's getting outside and seeing what's around the next bend. For Rachel and me, hiking is just one more way we try to keep Moving Life Forward.
©2026 Jesse Hurst
Senior Wealth Manager
The views stated are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Featured Blog Image Source: iStock.com/den-belitsky