2006 4th Street
The Horizon Advisor Network Investylitics Committee met on the afternoon of Monday, December 21st, the same day that Congress finally agreed to pass an additional $900B stimulus package. The stimulus package is expected to include enhanced federal unemployment benefits of $300 per week, stimulus checks of $600 per person, and additional funding for Paycheck Protection Plan (PPP) loans to support small businesses. There are a number of other spending items and support mechanisms in the bill, which should act as a fiscal stimulus bridge for the economy to get to the other side of the coronavirus pandemic.
All of this comes in addition to several other events giving help and hope to the economic recovery. This includes two different pharmaceutical companies getting approval to rollout their COVID-19 vaccines. As more and more of the population becomes vaccinated, the impact of the virus should wane over the next four to six months, allowing more normal economic activity to resume.
In addition to this, the Federal Reserve Bank has pledged to keep interest rates low for several years to support economic activity. A recent report shows that lower borrowing costs could add as much as 3-4% to corporate profits in the next calendar year. From a historical basis, stocks follow corporate earnings, which are expected to rebound significantly in 2021. This is especially true as we view them on a year over year basis with 2020 earnings that were depressed by the coronavirus induced recession.
Additionally, as the uncertainty of the recent elections moves to the rearview mirror, and as President Elect Biden appoints more cabinet members, there seems to be more clarity on the priorities of the new administration. Of course, all eyes continue to be on the upcoming Georgia Senate races, which will ultimately determine the balance of power in the US government. If Republicans hold on to at least one of the two Senate seats, it will be the first time that a Democratic President has been elected without the electorate also giving them control of both the House and the Senate since 1884. Regardless of the outcome, there will be very narrow margins in both houses. Hopefully, this means that people will have to work together across the aisle to accomplish meaningful initiatives for the benefit of the American people.
Source: Bruce Mehlman
Against this backdrop, the Investment Committee is happy to report that the model portfolios tracked by the committee have continued to outperform their risk adjusted benchmarks over the last one, three, and five years. We are only making changes to one of our small account models, at the present time. This will provide more international diversification to the portfolio, as we believe that between lower valuations overseas, more rapidly reopening economies in Southeast Asia, and the potential for a continued falling dollar would be supportive of these strategies.
From a technical standpoint, the markets are sitting near all-time highs, and seem to be coming up against some near term resistance. We believe that any pullbacks will be muted by both fiscal and monetary support, and hope surrounding the vaccines rolling out. At this point in time, any pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities, as we believe that the overall outlook remains constructive for risk assets in the near term.
What a year it has been!!
If you were reviewing your portfolio and financial plans with your advisor last December, and they told you, “Over the next 12 months, we will experience a global viral pandemic, a stock market drop of more than 30%, economic shutdowns and government mandated quarantines, social unrest and mass protests, and a bitter partisan divisive election. But don’t worry, your accounts will perform well, and actually will be higher by the time we review them next year.”, you likely would not have believed it, and probably neither would your advisor…and yet, here we are!
The Investylitics Committee is happy to have been here to provide advice, guidance, and confidence as we walked together through a year that we will all remember and talk about for years to come.
Should you have any questions regarding these notes, please do not hesitate to reach out to your advisor. We thank you for your continued trust and support and wish you and your family a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Bring on 2021!
The views stated are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisors LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Jesse Hurst - Chair, Impel Wealth Management
Nathan Ollish - Impel Wealth Management
Clint Gautreau, Horizon Financial Group
Kevin Myers, ATL GlobalJoy Schlie, FHT Financial Advisors
Sincerely,Jesse W. Hurst, CFP®, AIF®CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTMFinancial Advisor
*Award Recipient Jesse Hurst
*The 2021 ranking of the Forbes’ Best–in–State Wealth Advisors1 list was developed by SHOOK Research and is based on in–person and telephone due–diligence meetings to evaluate each advisor qualitatively and on a ranking algorithm that includes client retention, industry experience, review of compliance records, firm nominations, and quantitative criteria (including assets under management and revenue generated for their firms). Overall, approximately 32,725 advisors were considered, and 5,000 (approximately 15.3 percent of candidates) were recognized. The full methodology2 that Forbes developed in partnership with SHOOK Research is available at www.forbes.com.
1 This recognition and the due–diligence process conducted are not indicative of the advisor's future performance. Your experience may vary. Winners are organized and ranked by state. Some states may have more advisors than others. You are encouraged to conduct your own research to determine if the advisor is right for you.
2 Portfolio performance is not a criterion due to varying client objectives and lack of audited data. SHOOK does not receive a fee in exchange for rankings.