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• Global stock and bond markets finished 2022 with double-digit losses. Looking back on market history, this is a very rare occurrence. In fact, most asset classes were negative last year, leaving investors few places to hide.• As we turn the calendar to the new year, all eyes are on inflation and the Federal Reserve Bank. The latest inflation report was released this morning and showed headline inflation continuing to fall from its June peak.• We also have a very strong labor market. Unemployment is at a 50-year low, and jobs continue to be created, albeit at a slower pace than what we saw over the last year.• If you have questions or concerns about other accounts, IRA, or 401K plans that we do not currently manage, we are happy to give you a second opinion, as well as some constructive guidance. Please let us know how we can help.• We believe that lifetime financial and investment success is primarily driven by only acting on your goal-focused financial plan, not from reacting to current events or the latest headline. Now would be a great time to review your retirement income plan to make sure that you are still on track to reach your goals.
The Horizon Advisor Network Investylitics Committee met on the afternoon of January 12th. After doing our best to navigate an incredibly difficult economic and investment landscape in the calendar year 2022, we were happy to turn the page to a new year and look to the future. During today’s meeting, our committee members spent time reviewing their economic and investment research to help make certain that all committee members were informed as we look toward future allocation decisions.
2022 was indeed a difficult year in the financial markets. Volatility initially began spiking early in the year as the Fed shifted policy and began raising interest rates aggressively to combat rising and persistent inflation. This, along with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ongoing supply chain issues, and lingering pandemic policy overhang led to the worst year in the bond market, and the seventh worst year for the stock market since 1926, as you can see in the chart below.
As a matter of fact, most asset classes had negative returns last year. As you can see in our next chart, 105 of the 112 asset classes tracked by Morningstar lost money last year. This level of volatility and downturn was only matched by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
As we begin 2023, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve Bank and its response to what has now become downward trending inflation. After peaking at 9.1% in June, inflation has now fallen to 6.5% with the latest CPI release this morning. Moreover, after rising rapidly through the spring and summer months last year, the monthly rate of change in inflation has leveled off significantly over the last six months. If this trend continues, we could see inflation, falling to the 4% level by the summer months.
The Fed is also watching the employment picture very closely. The December employment report, which was released on January 6th, showed that the unemployment rate dropped back to 3.5%, a 50-year low. We also continue to create more jobs than expected in a very tight labor market. There are also still more jobs available than workers to fill them. Even though wage growth has not gotten out of line so far, the Fed is continuing to pay significant attention to these trends.
We would like to remind you, our trusted friends, and clients, that we are here to help you in a holistic way. This means that if you have other accounts, including those through your employer, that have not had their asset allocation and risk profile reviewed recently, we invite you to bring them in. We will give you a second opinion, and some constructive guidance if necessary. Please let us know how we can help.
Finally, we believe that lifetime financial and investment success is primarily driven by only acting on your goal-focused financial plan, not by reacting to current events. If you have not had your retirement income plan updated in the three years since the pandemic descended upon us, now would be a great time to do so. We believe that stress testing your plans during times of downturn and economic volatility can be a valuable exercise. Your financial advisor is here to help you navigate these choppy waters and can help bring clarity and confidence to your financial future.
I would like to remind you that as we work through the uncertain economic and investment outlook in the coming year, you will likely be subjected to significant negative media prognostications about the stock market and the potential for recession. We urge you to not be swayed by every “chicken little” report that you read or hear. Financial journalism has no vested interest in helping you meet your financial goals. Its main purpose is to get you to read, watch, click, like, or share more financial journalism.
We appreciate your trust in our team and our process. We take this responsibility seriously. We will continue to help you use your income and asset resources to accomplish what is most important in life. If you have any questions, please reach out to us, we are here to help.
The views stated are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.
Jesse Hurst - Chair, Impel Wealth Management
Nathan Ollish - Impel Wealth Management
Clint Gautreau, Horizon Financial Group
Kevin Myers, ATL GlobalJoy Schlie, FHT Financial Advisors
Dusty Green, Spencer Financial Inc.
Sincerely,Jesse W. Hurst, CFP®, AIF®CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERTMFinancial Advisor
*Award Recipient Jesse Hurst
*The 2021 ranking of the Forbes’ Best–in–State Wealth Advisors1 list was developed by SHOOK Research and is based on in–person and telephone due–diligence meetings to evaluate each advisor qualitatively and on a ranking algorithm that includes client retention, industry experience, review of compliance records, firm nominations, and quantitative criteria (including assets under management and revenue generated for their firms). Overall, approximately 32,725 advisors were considered, and 5,000 (approximately 15.3 percent of candidates) were recognized. The full methodology2 that Forbes developed in partnership with SHOOK Research is available at www.forbes.com.
1 This recognition and the due–diligence process conducted are not indicative of the advisor's future performance. Your experience may vary. Winners are organized and ranked by state. Some states may have more advisors than others. You are encouraged to conduct your own research to determine if the advisor is right for you.
2 Portfolio performance is not a criterion due to varying client objectives and lack of audited data. SHOOK does not receive a fee in exchange for rankings.