June 2026 Investylitics

• The S&P 500 rose roughly 5.3% in May, capping a historic nine-week winning streak and reaching new all-time highs. Defying the traditional Wall Street adage to "sell in May and go away". Corporate earnings are now expected to grow nearly 24% for calendar year 2026.Strong earnings growth has allowed stock prices to rise, while the P/E ratio has declined slightly.
• Employers added 172,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, comfortably beating the more modest expectations of economists. Additionally, available jobs surged to 7.6 million in April—the highest level in nearly two years.
• This better-than-expected job growth will likely allow the Federal Reserve Bank to focus on the inflation side of its dual mandate, thus limiting the potential for interest rate cuts in the near term, as the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, will lead his first meeting in mid-June. 
• A number of economic indicators come in better than expected recently, including real time GDP measurements, manufacturing data and new orders, which is bolstering small business and CEO optimism.
• This is juxtaposed against consumer sentiment readings, which are at all-time lows, especially for those in the lower half of income and net worth. Despite this, retail sales and consumer spending continue to show strength, indicating a significant gap between what people say and what they do.
• With geopolitical and inflation risks still at the forefront, along with elevated oil and gas prices, the committee believes the best way to navigate these uncertain economic times is to ensure you have adequate liquidity, resilience, and risk management processes built into your portfolio.
  

Job openings rose to a 7-month high of 7.62 million in April, well above expectations of 6.8 million. Openings exceeded job seekers, indicating rising labor demand. Overall labor market data has stabilized in recent months following weaker trends in 2025.

This better-than-expected job growth will likely allow the Federal Reserve Bank to focus on the inflation side of its dual mandate, limiting the potential for interest rate cuts in the near term, as the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, will lead his first meeting in mid-June. As you likely know from recent grocery or gasoline prices, U.S. inflation remains elevated, largely driven by a recent surge in energy prices. In April 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 3.8% annually, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose to 3.77%. Both metrics remain notably above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target.

A number of economic indicators have come in better than expected recently, including real-time GDP measurements, manufacturing data, and new orders, which is bolstering small business and CEO optimism. Service activity advanced in May, with the ISM Services Index edging higher to 54.5, near its long-term average, while new orders continued to expand. The ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to a 4-year high in May. While manufacturers continue to face rising price pressures, overall production activity and new orders are improving.

This is juxtaposed against consumer sentiment readings, which are at all-time lows, especially among for in the lower half of income and net worth. Despite this, retail sales and consumer spending continue to show strength, indicating a significant gap between what people say and what they do. However, as you will note in our final chart today, from a historical basis, low consumer sentiment readings tend to be correlated with above average stock market returns over the following year. This is likely due to the fact that consumer sentiment tends to reach its lowest point near the bottom of an economic cycle.

So, given the competing economic and investment narratives, what should an investor focus on? With geopolitical and inflation risks still at the forefront, along with elevated oil and gas prices, the committee believes the best way to navigate these uncertain economic times is to ensure you have adequate liquidity, resilience, and risk management processes built into your portfolio.

As always, should you have questions regarding you and your family’s unique financial situation, please reach out to your advisor. We are here to help provide guidance and wisdom to help you and your family reach their financial goals. Thank you for your continued trust and confidence.

The views stated in this piece are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisors LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Due to volatility within the markets, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.

A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

Jesse Hurst - Senior Wealth Manager - Chair, Impel Wealth Management

Nathan Ollish - Senior Financial Advisor - Impel Wealth Management

Clint Gautreau, Financial Advisor - Horizon Financial Group

Kevin Myers, Financial Advisor - ATL Global

Grace Hayden MacNaught, Financial Advisor - The Planning Studio

Dusty Green, Financial Advisor - Spencer Financial Inc.