March 2026 Investyltics

• Volatility has picked up dramatically across multiple asset classes since the onset of the United States and Israel’s joint attack on Iran's leadership and offensive capabilities. We expect this to continue until we have a clearer view of the endgame for the region.
• Despite all the negative headlines on cable TV and social media, the stock market has been more resilient than most people would have expected. It has traded in a relatively tight range, fluctuating less than 5%. This has been driven by strong corporate profits, a broadening of leadership, and a rotation into sectors of the market that have underperformed over the last several years.
• As we have seen with other commodity price action recently, most notably silver's rapid rise and fall earlier this year, oil prices have risen and fallen dramatically with the onset of the war in Iran. While we expect this to continue until military actions conclude or the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, the United States and its consumers are likely to have their wallets less impacted than during previous price shocks.
• The unemployment and inflation numbers continue to paint a mixed picture. Multiple measures of both factors that the Federal Reserve primarily relies on to set future monetary policy have produced mixed signals, likely leaving the central bank on hold when it meets next week.
• In times like this, it is important to remember that your diversified, asset allocation portfolios are not fluctuating up or down at the same level or pace as the unmanaged 100% stock indexes that dominate financial media. It is important not to make emotional decisions based on short-term moves or headlines, which we cannot control. However, there are a number of things you can control that are more likely to lead to your future financial success.
• The clients of Impel Wealth Management will likely have noticed trades in their portfolios over the last several weeks. Our investment committee concluded our semi-annual model portfolio analysis with our analytical and investment partners. The adjustments were mostly minor and reflected our outlook for the economy and opportunities to participate in the rotation and broadening of markets, which we expect to continue this year.

As you can see in our second chart above, today's economy is nowhere near as oil-driven as it was 45 years ago. This chart shows US GDP growth and oil consumption, both indexed to 1978. The economy has tripled in size while oil consumption has stayed mostly flat. Several changes explain this feat. Today’s vehicles are far more fuel-efficient. Also, relatively cheap natural gas has replaced oil for many uses. Renewable energy contributes as well. Economist Paul Krugman, who made the chart, says this reduced “oil intensity” means “even if the current war causes a large, sustained increase in oil prices, there will be less economic damage inflicted as a comparable increase would have done a few decades ago.”

We also thought it would be important to share historical context on past oil shocks, both up and down, which probably occur more frequently than people remember. Our next chart shows crude oil prices with notable supply/demand events marked. If the current Iran conflict ends soon, the latest spike may resemble what happened during the Gulf War in 1990: a sudden surge that quickly reversed itself. We will have to wait and see how this geopolitical event plays out.

The unemployment and inflation numbers continue to paint a mixed picture. Multiple measures of both factors that the Federal Reserve primarily relies on to set future monetary policy have produced mixed signals. CPI inflation has moderated toward the feds 2% inflation mandate over the last several reports and was in line with expectations. However, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the CPI, rose higher due to different index weights. Similarly, weekly unemployment claims remain low, and the recent ISM services sector report showed a pickup in new orders and hiring, representing a stronger economy and jobs outlook. The ADP private payroll number came in slightly above expectations, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics' unemployment report unexpectedly showed job losses for the month. Combined, these mixed messages will likely leave the central bank on hold when it meets next week.

The clients of Impel Wealth Management will likely have noticed trades in their portfolios over the last several weeks. Our internal investment committee concluded our semi-annual model portfolio analysis with our analytical and investment partners. The adjustments were mostly minor and reflected our outlook for the economy and opportunities to participate in the rotation and broadening of markets, which we expect to continue this year. The committee appreciates and values your trust and confidence. We will continue working hard to protect and grow your investment assets.

During times of volatility, it is important to remember that your diversified asset allocation portfolios are not fluctuating at the same pace as the unmanaged 100% stock indexes that dominate financial media. It is important not to make emotional decisions based on short-term moves or this noise. It is important to remember to control what you can control. This includes staying disciplined with your diversification, maintaining an appropriate risk profile, and maintaining adequate liquidity. Combined, these factors will likely increase the likelihood of future financial success. Please remember that this committee and your advisor stand ready to help you. Do not hesitate to reach out if you have questions or concerns about your situation.

The views stated in this piece are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisors LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Due to volatility within the markets, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.

A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic stability, and differences in accounting standards.

Cetera does not offer direct investments in gold/silver/cooper (commodities). Commodities are volatile investments and may not be suitable for all investors.

The Russell 2000 is a stock-market index measuring the performance of 2000 small-capitalization stocks. It represents the 2000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which in turn represents the 3000 largest companies in the U.S. Thus, the Russell 2000 is a barometer of small-cap stocks. Though small, the companies represented by the Russell 2000 are not the smallest of the small as they are not penny stocks. The Russell 2000 is weighted by the market capitalization of the stocks.

Jesse Hurst - Senior Wealth Manager - Chair, Impel Wealth Management

Nathan Ollish - Senior Financial Advisor - Impel Wealth Management

Clint Gautreau, Financial Advisor - Horizon Financial Group

Kevin Myers, Financial Advisor - ATL Global

Grace Hayden MacNaught, Financial Advisor - The Planning Studio

Dusty Green, Financial Advisor - Spencer Financial Inc.