October 2025 Investylitics

Horizon Advisor Network Investment Committee October 13, 2025

The Horizon Advisor Network Investylitics Committee members met on the afternoon of Monday, October 13th. We were happy to have the opportunity to review the research from the various market strategists and economists that the committee follows. Since our meeting last month, the markets have continued their upward trend, with very little in the way of pullbacks, until last Friday's very public spat between China and the United States over tariffs and rare-earth minerals. This caused the first significant downturn we had seen in the previous few months, though much of the initial decline was reversed earlier this week amid toned-down rhetoric and upbeat corporate earnings.

The US government shutdown is entering its third week, with no immediate signs of negotiations or a settlement. This is delaying economic reports that the Federal Reserve Bank relies heavily on to make monetary policy decisions. As government shutdowns have become much more commonplace over the last several decades, markets have shrugged off political rhetoric and focused more on positive news about mergers and acquisitions, deregulation, and the potential for strong earnings in the coming weeks.

As you can see in our first chart below, government shutdowns have occurred relatively regularly over the last 50 years and have not had a significant negative impact on the economy or markets. As you will notice, returns have been relatively muted during government shutdowns and have generally been positive following their resolution.

Source: Morningstar as of 9/30/2025, The US House of Representatives

As a matter of fact, the committee recommends that instead of focusing on daily political headlines and financial noise, you zoom out to look at the bigger picture. In the following chart, you can see the long-term trajectory of the markets over the last 45 years, with the various government shutdowns shown by the dotted lines. This illustrates that over long periods of time, corporate earnings and economic growth drive market returns far more than brief periods of government infighting and dislocations.

The markets have continued to move higher despite the projected slowdown in corporate earnings. This has partially been driven by optimism that analysts have set the bar too low and that earnings will continue to surprise to the upside. Despite all the headline volatility and market-moving events we have seen this year, consumer spending and retail sales have remained strong, and the government is promising more deregulation, which could spur additional merger and acquisition activity that could support higher prices.

As you will note in our final chart, the current US economic expansion has reached 65 months, matching the post-WWII average. But recent history suggests there could be more room to run—the last four expansions averaged 103 months. With expectations of additional Federal Reserve Bank interest rate cuts and stimulus from the recent government tax bill set to hit the economy in early 2026, our current period of economic growth could potentially continue.

While the committee remains cautiously optimistic about the future returns of diversified portfolios, we should not forget how quickly markets can turn on negative news, as we saw on Friday when issues reemerged between the United States and China. We strongly believe that maintaining a disciplined diversification within your portfolio makes good sense, and that rebalancing your portfolio regularly to take advantage of market fluctuations and raise cash for short-term needs is the prudent course of action.

As always, if you have any questions regarding your unique situation, please do not hesitate to reach out to your advisor. We are here for you as we continue to navigate the economic and investment landscape. Thank you for your continued trust and support.

The views stated in this piece are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisors LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Due to volatility within the markets, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.

A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

Re-balancing may be a taxable event. Before you take any specific action be sure to consult with your tax professional.

Sincerely,

Jesse W. Hurst, CFP®, AIF®
Senior Financial Planner and CEO

*Award Recipient Jesse Hurst 

Forbes: Best-in-State Wealth Advisors Award received by Jesse Hurst, Senior Wealth Advisor, (2018-2024). The Forbes ranking of Best-In-State Wealth Advisors, developed by SHOOK Research, is based on an algorithm of qualitative data, rating thousands of wealth advisors with a minimum of seven years’ experience and weighing factors like revenue trends, assets under management, compliance records, industry experience, and best practices learned through telephone and in-person interviews. Portfolio performance is not a criteria due to varying client objectives and lack of audited data. Neither Forbes nor SHOOK receive a fee in exchange for rankings. Research summary as of April 2024: - 44,990 nominations received, based on thresholds - 23,876 invited to complete online survey - 20,412 telephone interviews - 4,926 in-person interviews at Advisor's location - 1,507 virtual interviews. Listing in this publication and/or award is not a guarantee of future investment success. This recognition should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client. No compensation was provided directly or indirectly by the recipient for participation or in connection with obtaining or using the third-party rating or award.

¹ This recognition and the due–diligence process conducted are not indicative of the advisor's future performance. Your experience may vary. Winners are organized and ranked by state. Some states may have more advisors than others. You are encouraged to conduct your own research to determine if the advisor is right for you. 

² Portfolio performance is not a criterion due to varying client objectives and lack of audited data. SHOOK does not receive a fee in exchange for rankings.