$38 Trillion and Rising

Jesse W. Hurst, CFP^®, AIF^®

January 19, 2026

"Five Feet High and Rising" is a song written and originally recorded by Johnny Cash. The song was recorded by Cash on March 12, 1959, for his third Columbia album, and released as a single on July 6, 1959, with "I Got Stripes" (another great song from the same recording session) on the B-side. The song provides a first-person account of his family's experience during the devastating 1937 Mississippi River flood. It is based on Cash's real-life childhood experience. He was nearly five years old at the time of the flood in Dyess, Arkansas.

Source: Wikipedia

The lyrics depict the rising floodwaters and the family's efforts to move their belongings and livestock (bees, chickens, cows) to higher ground. The repeated refrain increases the water's height by one foot each time (two feet, three feet, up to "five feet high and rising"), building tension. Cash also notably performed the song on Sesame Street to teach children about counting and the importance of learning how to swim.

For those of you who don’t know this song, I've included a YouTube link below for your listening pleasure. It includes Johnny Cash telling the story that inspired the song.

Five feet high and rising - Johnny Cash

If Johnny Cash were still with us today, he could sing about something else that is rising and is just as scary: the level of our federal debt. You will notice from our first chart below that the total amount of treasury debt outstanding has now topped $30 trillion.

One thing you may notice in this chart is how smooth the line is from 2010 to 2020. It then jumped noticeably during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns. It then resumes its steady increase and accelerates as we move to the present. To clarify, each bar represents one month, starting in 2005. They show the debt slowly but surely accumulating to today’s north-of-$30-trillion total.

If you have seen pictures of the federal debt clock website, which I have included below, you may be wondering why the outstanding amount of US Treasury debt totals $30 trillion, while the total amount of US debt exceeds $38 trillion. You see, the difference between the two figures lies in the definition of total US debt (gross federal debt) and the sub-category of debt held by the public (or outstanding Treasury debt held by external investors). The total amount of US debt includes debt the government essentially owes to itself, a component known as intragovernmental holdings.

Source: US Debt Clock

Here's the breakdown:

The total US debt (gross federal debt), which has surpassed $38 trillion, is the comprehensive figure encompassing all federal borrowing. The outstanding amount of US Treasury debt (debt held by the public), approximately $30 trillion, refers to marketable securities (Treasury bills, notes, and bonds) sold to domestic and foreign investors, including individuals, corporations, the Federal Reserve, and foreign governments.

The difference—roughly $8 trillion—is intragovernmental debt, which records transactions between parts of the federal government. A primary example is the money the Treasury has borrowed from the Social Security trust fund, which has invested excess payroll tax revenues in special non-marketable Treasury securities over the years.

Both figures are important for different reasons, but economists often focus on public debt as the more economically meaningful measure because it reflects the amount borrowed from outside the government to finance operations, which can affect private investment and economic stability.

You will also notice several vital things in the chart above. The first is the amount of tariff revenue collected by the federal government in the current fiscal year, which exceeds $370 billion. This money can be used to offset other growing government expenses, such as the four line items at the bottom of the chart: Medicare/Medicaid, Social Security, Defense/War, and interest on the debt, which is quickly approaching $1 trillion per year.

Over the years, both parties have controlled the government at different times, with various combinations holding the White House, the House, and the Senate. Both Democrats and Republicans had periods of complete control, too. It did NOT matter. The debt burden still climbed almost every month, no matter who was in charge. It seems that talking about cutting government expenses and reducing the debt is way easier than actually doing it.

Johnny Cash’s story had a positive outcome. After the waters receded, the flood deposited rich soil, and the family had a record cotton crop the following year. It is doubtful that the federal government's reckless spending and lack of fiscal discipline will have a similar outcome. Trends like this one continue until they don’t. When it will turn is anyone’s guess… but it won’t last forever.

I have written extensively about the federal debt over the years in an effort to keep you informed about this very important topic. Unfortunately, our national indebtedness is rising, but it is way more than five feet high. We will do our best to keep you in the loop as things progress. It is part of our mission as we continue “Moving Life Forward.”

Senior Wealth Manager

$38 Trillion and Rising

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