As we head toward the beginning of both the college and Pro Football seasons here in northeast Ohio, expectations are high for the Ohio State Buckeyes to repeat as national champions, despite losing a number of their starters to the NFL draft. Ohio State has won nine NCAA national championships in football. Their titles were earned in 1942, 1954, 1957, 1961, 1968, 1970, 2002, 2014, and 2024. Last week, Rachel and I had the privilege and honor of meeting coach Jim Tressel, who brought us the 2002 national championship team.
Source: Jesse’s iPhone
We are also at the time of year when people are still holding out hope that things will be different for the Cleveland Browns this year. I'm not holding my breath. I was born in 1965, the year AFTER the Browns won their last NFL championship, and as I approach my 60th birthday, I have yet to see them make a Super Bowl. We have had Red Right 88, The Drive, and The Fumble. We have also had more starting quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL over the last 20 years.
Each football season brings with it a number of memorable plays. Inevitably, some of these come from taking a calculated risk on 4th down and going for it, instead of punting the ball to the other team. Successfully converting a 4th down in football requires a confluence of factors, encompassing tactical decisions, player execution, and situational awareness. The decision to go for it is based on several factors, including distance to go, field position, game situation, momentum, and coaching instincts.
In essence, a successful 4th down conversion involves a calculated risk, aiming to maximize the team's chance of securing a first down and continuing the drive, or scoring valuable points, according to The Sport Journal. Failing on 4th down can make the coach and some of his players targets for fans and sports journalists across the country. Converting on 4th down, or even more impressively scoring a go-ahead or winning touchdown on 4th down, can be one of the most exciting things in sports. I selected a video from YouTube showing some of the most exciting 4th down scoring plays in recent NFL history. A link to the video is included below.
Best Most Clutch 4th Down Conversions In NFL Football History Part One
What does any of this have to do with investing in wealth management? I am glad you asked. You see, over the last seven years, investors have had to deal with their own 4th down situations. From July 1, 2018, to June 30, 2025, the stock market has had four downturns of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 on an intraday basis, as shown in the chart below.
As you can see, the S&P 500 index rose from approximately 2800 to just over 6200 over those seven years. This is an increase of roughly 3400 points or approximately 121%. So, what did you, as an investor, have to do to be successful through these four significant downturns? The most important thing is that you had to stay invested. If you panicked and sold out of the market during any one of these downturns, you most likely missed a significant portion of the subsequent rebound.
A bear market is typically defined as a decline of 20% or more in the stock market. Most of these types of drops have happened concurrently with economic downturns. Since the end of World War II, the S&P 500 has experienced 14 bear markets, of which 11 occurred during a recession. However, growth scares of 1962, 1987, and 2022 caused the market to drop more than 20% without the economy falling into a recession. You can see the depth of these various downturns in our second chart below.
The most severe post war bear markets have coincided with significant financial and economic downturns, including:
• 1973-74: -48.2%, Sparked by high inflation and the Arab oil embargo
• 2000-02: -49.1%, The bursting of the dot.com bubble, the events of 9/11, and Enron WorldCom
• 2007-09: -56.8%, The subprime mortgage crisis and the failure of AIG & Lehman Brothers
It is also important to note that three downturns in the last 15 years only marked a 20% drop on an intraday basis. By the time the market closed on those particular days, the market had made up enough ground to have losses of more than 19% each time, but not technically a bear market. This includes the Fiscal Cliff downturn in August 2011, the Federal Reserve Bank hiking cycle from September 20th to December 24th, 2018, and the most recent Trade/Tariff scare from February 19th to April 8th this year. Each of these may not have cleared the hurdle to be technically called a bear market, but I can tell you from client responses and the emotionally charged discussions that we had during that time, they sure felt like it.
This most recent downturn seemed to have people more nervous than usual. I believe this is a combination of our country's emotionally charged political backdrop and the never-ending negative drumbeat of our 24-hour cable news and social media spin cycles. We were told that this was the fifth fastest drop of 10% or more in the last 75 years. The VIX fear indicator spiked to levels only seen during the COVID lockdowns in March 2020, the aforementioned failure of AIG and Lehman Brothers in September 2008, and the stock market crash of October 1987.
Despite the media screaming that the end of the world was coming, for at least the seventh time since the turn of the century, the end of the world was once again postponed. I did what I have learned to do over my 35+ years as a financial advisor: I tried to help my clients not respond emotionally and do the wrong thing at the wrong time. I shared many of my thoughts and advice in an article in the Akron Beacon Journal on April 8th. A link to that article is included below.
Q&A: Worried about your 401(k), investments after Trump's tariffs? Here's some expert advice
Keeping a cool head can be pivotal amid market turmoil
I would like to close today's post by congratulating YOU, our friends and clients. Despite some difficult conversations and frustrations with the overall state of the US economic and political systems, you scored during the fourth 20% downturn we have experienced in the last seven years by NOT panicking and selling low. If you had done so, you would have missed the subsequent rebound all-time new highs which happened in less than 90 days from the panic-induced bottom of the market, which occurred on April 8th.
By trusting in your diversified portfolios, your financial plans, and in the long-term historical success of capitalistic, free-market economies, you allowed yourself to claim victory and spike your financial football!! You are to be congratulated. Building wealth is not easy. If it were, everyone would be wealthy. Many people panicked and did the wrong thing at the wrong time. However, as Warren Buffett's long-time friend and business partner, Charlie Munger, used to say, you did not stop the compounding!
As we wrap up today, we want to recognize the discipline and resilience many of you have shown. Navigating market volatility is never easy, and the recent 20% market downturn, our fourth in the past seven years, was no exception. Staying invested during uncertain times can be challenging, but history has shown that markets have often rebounded after periods of decline. In fact, following the market low on April 8th, we saw a notable recovery within 90 days.
By remaining committed to your diversified portfolios and long-term financial plans, you’ve demonstrated a thoughtful approach to investing. While past performance is not indicative of future results, maintaining a long-term perspective has historically been a key component of successful investing.
As we look ahead to the fall and the return of college and NFL football, we’re reminded that perseverance and preparation often lead to strong outcomes—on the field and in financial planning. Thank you for your continued trust and partnership.
Source: YouTube
The most memorable 4th down touchdowns combine high pressure, remarkable athleticism, and a significant impact on the game's outcome, making them unforgettable moments for players and fans alike.
Please don't forget the lessons learned and reiterated here today. It will be critical to your future success the next time we go through some economic or geopolitical episode, because we will. I thought this was an important reminder and a fun way to share the historical perspective as we continue “Moving Life Forward.”
© 2025 Jesse Hurst
Senior Wealth Manager
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The views stated are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Neither Cetera Advisors LLC nor any of its representatives may give legal or tax advice. This information is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation.
Investors cannot directly invest in indices.
The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
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