Released in 1985, The Breakfast Club became one of John Hughes’ most enduring films, not because of what happened, but because of what the characters learned. It stars Emilio Estevez, Paul Gleason, Anthony Michael Hall, Judd Nelson, Molly Ringwald, and Ally Sheedy. The film opens with five students from different social circles forced to spend a Saturday together in detention. They gather in the school library and meet with their Vice Principal Richard Vernon, who warns them not to talk or move from their seats and assigns each of them the task of writing a thousand-word essay describing "who you think you are." It turns out that’s a harder question to answer than it sounds…for teenagers and for investors alike.
Source: Amazon.com
Each character begins as a stereotype, only to discover that reality is far messier and far more interesting than the label suggests. Here are the major lessons learned by each character:
John Bender (The Criminal): Learns that he is worthy of friendship and affection despite his chaotic home life and aggressive exterior. He discovers that vulnerability, rather than constant rebellion, allows for true connection.
Claire Standish (The Princess): Realizes her popular, privileged life is stifling and that she is pressured to act in ways that contradict her true self. She learns to resist peer pressure and to value friendship over social status.
Andrew Clark (The Athlete): Learns that his identity as a tough jock is a facade, and that his fear of disappointing his father has caused him to bully others. He realizes it is okay to be vulnerable and not always have to win or fit in.
Brian Johnson (The Brain): Learns that academic success and pleasing his parents do not equate to social happiness or self-worth. He realizes his value extends beyond his grades and that it is okay to fail.
Allison Reynolds (The Basket Case): Discovers that her eccentric, withdrawn behavior is a defense mechanism to hide her loneliness and neglect. She learns that she can be accepted for who she is without using antisocial antics to get attention.
Those lessons feel familiar because markets have a habit of teaching them the same way. If you haven’t seen it in a while — or just want a quick nostalgia hit — I’ve included the trailer below.
The Breakfast Club Official Trailer #1 - Paul Gleason Movie (1985) HD
Just like the students in The Breakfast Club, investors were reminded last year that markets rarely behave the way their labels suggest. I will share some charts and graphs with some brief descriptions or comments below each.
Let's begin by reviewing how volatility spiked earlier in the year amid trade/tariff uncertainty, culminating in the April 2nd liberation day tariff announcements by the Trump administration.
Source: BlackRock
As you can see in the chart above, there were 12 days in March, April, and May when the stock market swung by 2% or more. Like John Bender, the markets initially looked unruly and unpredictable, but they didn’t turn out to be as frightening as investors experienced in 2008, 2020, and 2022. Despite multiple sources of ongoing uncertainty, volatility of this magnitude only occurred once in the last seven months of the year, much to the surprise of almost everyone.
Let's turn our attention to the fixed income market where bonds quietly produced returns above their historical average in 2025.
Source: BlackRock
The bond index outperformed its 100-year average by more than 2%. Looking at the chart above, you will also note a much tighter range of bond returns historically. There have been only 11 years in that time frame when bonds lost money, and most of those losses were relatively small. The exception was 2022's double-digit drop, when the Federal Reserve Bank started raising interest rates aggressively to fight inflation after realizing it was NOT transitory. You will also see that bonds produced positive returns of 0-10% 77 of the last 100 years. Much like Allison, bonds have spent years misunderstood and undervalued, until they quietly reminded investors of their value.
Moving over to the equity markets, you will see that the US stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, produced returns well above the historical benchmark, despite a nearly 20% drawdown in the first few months of the year.
Source: BlackRock
In reviewing the chart above, you will likely notice a much wider dispersion of returns for stocks when compared to bonds. While the index averaged 10.5% per year over the last 100 years, it produced returns within 2% of that figure only 6 times over that period. It is much more common to see years with double-digit losses or double-digit gains. However, you should note that large positive years outweigh the negative years by a nearly 2:1 ratio over that time.
Like Andrew trying to live up to his father’s expectations, the economy is trying to defy fears of a future slowdown. Let’s see what history has to say about that.
Source: BlackRock
As you can see above, the current economic expansion is about in line with historical norms. However, if you look in the box, you will see that since 1982, economic cycles have become longer, with growth lasting over 100 months on average. It is also important to remember that the average expansion lasts approximately 5 times as long as the average recession over the last century.
So, will the market continue its winning streak? Nobody knows for sure. Like Brian, investors are often tempted to believe the numbers will give them certainty, until reality reminds them that markets don’t grade on a curve. History is mixed on what happens next after three years of double-digit gains in the S&P 500 index, as you will see in our final chart.
Source: BlackRock
As you can see, this phenomenon has occurred only 7 times in the previous 100 years. The fourth year produced positive returns four times, while it was negative three times. There are factors on each side of the equation that could argue for either continued economic growth or potential headwinds. Numerous government stimulus measures are already in place, from tax cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to retroactive tax refunds to massive tax breaks and subsidies for companies that agree to move their manufacturing operations to the United States. We are also in the early innings of this AI productivity boost across corporate America, which could boost profits going forward.
In The Breakfast Club, the students eventually realize that the essay they were assigned wasn’t really about labels like “criminal,” “athlete,” or “brain.” It was about how incomplete those labels were. Markets handed investors a similar assignment last year. Volatility looked scarier than it turned out to be. Bonds reminded us they still belong in the conversation. Stocks once again refused to follow a neat script. And the economy continued to defy easy categorization. In the end, neither teenagers nor investors are graded on stereotypes — and the most important lessons rarely come from predicting what happens next, but from understanding who you are, how you behave under pressure, and why staying disciplined matters as we all continue “Moving Life Forward.”
© 2026 Jesse Hurst
Senior Wealth Manager
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The views stated are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Neither Cetera Advisors LLC nor any of its representatives may give legal or tax advice. This information is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation.
Investors cannot directly invest in indices.
The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.
The IA SBBI U.S. Intermediate-Term Government Bond Index is an unmanaged index that measures the performance of the U.S. intermediate-term government bond market, constructed as a single-bond portfolio of the shortest-term, non-callable government bond with less than 5 years to maturity.
The IA SBBI IT U.S. Large Stock TR Index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the historical U.S. stock market on a price return basis prior to the inception of the S&P 500 TR Index in 1970.
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Total Return Value Unhedged Index, also known as ‘Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index’ formerly known as the ‘Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index’, and prior to that, ‘Lehman Aggregate Bond Index’, is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), ABS and CMBS (agency and non-agency).
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